Sooner or later the dollar will be devalued. The folks in Congress continue to spend money they don’t have are printing money as fast as they can.
If the dollar is devalued, the cost of goods, services and practically all assets become more expensive. If the printing presses to continue to run, the end result is the same. It will take just a tad longer to achieve the result.
The dollar’s days as the world reserve currency are numbered. It will be a sad day when it comes to pass.
RAC
The Intelligent Trader
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Thursday, November 19, 2009
AM Comment; November 19, 2009
The first report of the day is Jobless Claims at 8:30 a.m. ET.
The consensus estimate for initial claims 505,000, up from the previous reading of 502,000. The 4 week moving is 519,750. A reading above the four-week moving average would be bearish and a surprise to the markets, while a number below the psychologically important 500,000 level would be very bullish.
Continuing claims are expected to fall to 5.6 million. This reflects workers losing benefits. A reading above the last week of 5.631 million would be a bearish surprise, while a reading below forecast would be bullish.
The Conference Board's index of Leading Indicators will be released at 10 a.m. ET. Expectations are for a gain of 0.5 percent, smaller than the last rise of 1 percent. A number higher than 0.5 percent would be bullish, while a flat reading or a negative one would be a bearish surprise.
The Philadelphia Fed Survey will be released at 10 a.m. ET. The forecast calls for a reading of 12, up slightly from the previous 11.5. A number significantly higher than 12 would be bullish, while one at or below 11.5 would be bearish.
The one thing that we don't want here is a surprise - one way or the other.
Richard Fisher, Dallas Fed President, will give the closing address at the Cato Institute's conference on monetary policy at 4:45 p.m. ET. If there are any surprises from the speech, they will be seen in the currency markets first and in tomorrow's pre-market trading.
The SEMI Book to Bill ratio will be released at 6 p.m. ET. The last reading came in above 1 and was therefore bullish, at 1.17. A higher number would be bullish, while a reading below 1 would be bearish.
Stay Loose
RAC
The Intelligent Trader
The consensus estimate for initial claims 505,000, up from the previous reading of 502,000. The 4 week moving is 519,750. A reading above the four-week moving average would be bearish and a surprise to the markets, while a number below the psychologically important 500,000 level would be very bullish.
Continuing claims are expected to fall to 5.6 million. This reflects workers losing benefits. A reading above the last week of 5.631 million would be a bearish surprise, while a reading below forecast would be bullish.
The Conference Board's index of Leading Indicators will be released at 10 a.m. ET. Expectations are for a gain of 0.5 percent, smaller than the last rise of 1 percent. A number higher than 0.5 percent would be bullish, while a flat reading or a negative one would be a bearish surprise.
The Philadelphia Fed Survey will be released at 10 a.m. ET. The forecast calls for a reading of 12, up slightly from the previous 11.5. A number significantly higher than 12 would be bullish, while one at or below 11.5 would be bearish.
The one thing that we don't want here is a surprise - one way or the other.
Richard Fisher, Dallas Fed President, will give the closing address at the Cato Institute's conference on monetary policy at 4:45 p.m. ET. If there are any surprises from the speech, they will be seen in the currency markets first and in tomorrow's pre-market trading.
The SEMI Book to Bill ratio will be released at 6 p.m. ET. The last reading came in above 1 and was therefore bullish, at 1.17. A higher number would be bullish, while a reading below 1 would be bearish.
Stay Loose
RAC
The Intelligent Trader
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Now the Deficit Matters
I pulled this off Reuters this morning. This guy is quickly becoming President Pinnochio because he says one thing and absolutely means something else.
---
President Barack Obama gave his sternest warning yet about the need to contain rising U.S. deficits, saying on Wednesday that if government debt were to pile up too much, it could lead to a double-dip recession.
With the U.S. unemployment rate at 10.2 percent, Obama told Fox News his administration faces a delicate balance of trying to boost the economy and spur job creation while putting the economy on a path toward long-term deficit reduction.
His administration was considering ways to accelerate economic growth, with tax measures among the options to give companies incentives to hire, Obama said in the interview with Fox conducted in Beijing during his nine-day trip to Asia.
"It is important though to recognize if we keep on adding to the debt, even in the midst of this recovery, that at some point, people could lose confidence in the U.S. economy in a way that could actually lead to a double-dip recession," he said.
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
AM Comment; November 17, 2009 -- Disrespect
The word of the day is disrespect.
In fact, I found it in every section of this morning’s paper.
Obama bows before Japanese leader – disrespect to the American people. American leaders bow to no one. This is at least the 2nd time it has occurred. The man has no dignity and is not proud to be an American.
Obama does not visit Hiroshima on anniversary of WWII ending – disrespect to ALL who served in the Great War and their families. More disrespect to the men and women in uniform serving their country.
Obama did not meet the Dali Lama – disrespect to the people of Tibet.
Obama derides China on censorship – disrespect to his Chinese hosts. Obama censored as a result.
Obama administration to try terrorist in New York City even though he wants to plead guilty – disrespect to the American people, citizens in New York and all of our allies around the world.
Patriot coach – Bill Belichick – does for it on 4th down on deep in his own territory with the game on the line. He fails and the Colts rally to victory. Colts defensive players say they were disrespected.
As the day unfolds, I am sure that we’ll here more about respect and disrespect.
We’re on the cusp on something and I am not sure how to play it. More later.
RAC
The Intelligent Trader
In fact, I found it in every section of this morning’s paper.
Obama bows before Japanese leader – disrespect to the American people. American leaders bow to no one. This is at least the 2nd time it has occurred. The man has no dignity and is not proud to be an American.
Obama does not visit Hiroshima on anniversary of WWII ending – disrespect to ALL who served in the Great War and their families. More disrespect to the men and women in uniform serving their country.
Obama did not meet the Dali Lama – disrespect to the people of Tibet.
Obama derides China on censorship – disrespect to his Chinese hosts. Obama censored as a result.
Obama administration to try terrorist in New York City even though he wants to plead guilty – disrespect to the American people, citizens in New York and all of our allies around the world.
Patriot coach – Bill Belichick – does for it on 4th down on deep in his own territory with the game on the line. He fails and the Colts rally to victory. Colts defensive players say they were disrespected.
As the day unfolds, I am sure that we’ll here more about respect and disrespect.
We’re on the cusp on something and I am not sure how to play it. More later.
RAC
The Intelligent Trader
Monday, November 16, 2009
PM Comment; November 16, 2009
The dollar got things rolling today by working lower against the euro and other major currencies.
In lock step, the stock market opened higher and never looked back.
The market closed at recovery highs and the mood was pretty upbeat.
The indicators continue to warn us that things aren’t as rosy as people are making them out to be.
Bernanke’s comments and those by bank analyst Meredith Whitney could not derail Mr. Market.
RAC
The Intelligent Trader
In lock step, the stock market opened higher and never looked back.
The market closed at recovery highs and the mood was pretty upbeat.
The indicators continue to warn us that things aren’t as rosy as people are making them out to be.
Bernanke’s comments and those by bank analyst Meredith Whitney could not derail Mr. Market.
RAC
The Intelligent Trader
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